Forecasting the Trend of Meteorological Disaster Influence on GuangZhou in the Coming 10 Years(2000～2010)by Expert Assessment Method
Lin Jisheng
Abstract：Meteorological disaster (mainly wind damagae,waterlog disaster and drought damage) was classified by five categories as slight,not serious,medium,relatively serious and serious by the degree of its influence on Guangzhou,and divided into 3 ranges in time: short-term(2000～2002),medium-term(2003～2006) ,and long-term (2007～2010).Through the investigation by 57 experts who had been engaged in disatser research for a long time ,with application expert of assessment method (Delphi method) the results showed that wind damage would have the greatest influence on Guangzhou among the meteorological disasters.In the coming 10 years,there would be tropical cyclone influence on Guangzhou almost every year,which would bring a certain extent of damage that was 10～15% more serious than that in normal year.Waterlog disaster brings less influence compared them with tropical cyclone in short term,but its influence was close to that of tropical cyclone in mid-term and even surpasses that of tropical cyclone in long-term.Waterlog damage in forcasting period will be about 10% more serious than that in normal year. Drought damage will bring the slightest influence among meteorological disasters (especially in short and long term),and its influence is about 5% slighter than that in normal year.
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Publication Date：2001-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：3( 47-49 )