Risk factor prediction of intracranial aneurysm rupture:a multimodal analysis integrating CTA-derived morphology,clinical characteristics and hematological inflammatory markers
WANG Yufan
LI Yuguo
GU Changqing
SHI Fan
TONG He
LI Song
MA Yichuan
Abstract：Objective To analyze the risk factors for intracranial aneurysm(IA)rupture based on morphological parameters from computed tomography angiography(CTA),clinical characteristics of patients,and hematological inflammatory indicators.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 176 IA patients treated at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Bengbu Medical University from November 2022 to September 2024.Based on the presence or absence of subarachnoid hemorrhage,patients were categorized into an unruptured group(n=72)and a ruptured group(n=104).Clinical data,hematological inflammatory indicators,and CTA-derived aneurysmal morphological parameters were compared between the two groups.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify risk factors for IA rupture.Additionally,ROC curves and area under the curve(AUC)analyses were performed to evaluate the diagnostic efficacy of these risk factors.Results Irregular morphology(OR=3.079,95%CI:1.030-9.200,P=0.044),presence of daughter sacs(OR=3.271,95%CI:1.109-9.650,P=0.032),elevated size ratio(OR=2.117,95%CI:1.074-4.170,P=0.030),increased aspect ratio(OR=7.189,95%CI:1.242-41.619,P=0.028),and elevated systemic inflammatory response index(OR=1.500,95%CI:1.242-1.810,P<0.001)were identified as independent risk factors for IA rupture,with AUC values of 0.77,0.75,0.67,0.75 and 0.93,respectively.Conclusion Analysis based on CTA morphological parameters combined with clinical factors and blood inflammation indicators reveals that IAs with irregular morphology,presence of daughter sacs,high size ratio,high aspect ratio,and elevated systemic inflammatory response index are all high-risk factors for aneurysm rupture.These factors hold immense importance in accurately predicting the risk of aneurysm rupture.
Keywords：intracranial aneurysmcomputed tomography angiographyrupture of aneurysmsubarachnoid hemorrhagerisk factors
Publication Date：2025-04-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 412-418 )