Long-Term Changes in Plankton Communities in Context of Global Warming
Zhang Wuchang
Zhao Yuan
Liu Hongbin
Sun Jun
Abstract：Plankton form the foundation of marine ecosystems,and changes in their community structure and phenology affect ecosystem function and biogeographical patterns.Global warming drives sea surface temperature increases,resulting in poleward shifts of plankton distribution,with the leading edge advancing more noticeably while the core and trailing edge remain relatively stable.Warming also causes phenological shifts in some species,such as earlier spring events and delayed autumn events.The extent of distribution and phenological changes varies among plankton groups,mainly affecting community structure at the margins,while no significant changes have been observed in the dominant species of community cores.If future ocean circulation patterns remain stable,the risk of major shifts in plankton community cores from the tropics to subarctic regions is low,and dominant species in polar communities are also unlikely to change substantially in the next century.Long-term systematic observation in Chinese seas is still insufficient,and key regions lack critical data.Synthesizing evidence from polar and coastal regions,this study predicts that if warming does not exceed 2℃,the positions of community cores in China's coastal plankton communities may shift,but the risk of substantial structural change remains low.
Keywords：planktonocean warmingbiogeographic distributioncommunitiesphenologyclimate changeoceanography
Publication Date：2025-11-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-12-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：20( 4551-4570 )