Vegetation Changes in Tarim River Basin over Past 20 Years and Their Relationship with Climate Factors
Yue Shengru
Wang Lunche
Cao Qian
Sun Jia
Cui Lifang
Abstract：To understand the role of climatic factors in driving vegetation changes in the Tarim River Basin during the"warming and humidification"process in Northwest China,based on the linear regression,coefficient of variation,Person correlation coefficient,Hurst index and partial derivative methods,the climate-driven mechanism of vegetation change in the Tarim River Basin was quantitatively evaluated using MODIS satellite remote sensing data and meteorological data.It is found that the optimal vegetation growth and productivity levels in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the index NDVI,EVI,and NPP growth rates were 0.036 4/10a,0.023 8/10a,and 12.606 1 gC/(m2·10a),respectively.The Hurst index shows that the study area had the problem of uncertainty of continuous change in vegetation,and the areas of continuous improvement accounted for 19.7％,18.7％,and 6.1％of the watershed area,respectively.At the watershed scale,the contributions of climatic factors to NDVI,EVI,and NPP were 0.001 6/10a,0.001 0/10a,and 2.801 9 gC/(m2·10a),respectively.Precipitation was the main climatic factor affecting vegetation change compared to air temperature;radiation had an inhibitory effect on vegetation change.Climate change contributed limitedly to the changes in optimal vegetation growth,but promoted significant improvements in vegetation productivity.The results reveal the spatial characteristics of vegetation change and climate-driven changes in the Tarim River Basin.
Keywords：Tarim River Basinvegetation changedriving mechanismquantitative evaluationclimate change
Publication Date：2025-01-14
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：13( 33-45 )