Combination Probability Cumulating Method of Resources Evaluation and Its Application for Oil & Gas Zone and Trap under Different Geological Constrains
Sheng Xiujie
Jin Zhijun
Xiao Ye
Wang Yigang
Abstract：Resources of the zone or the 3rd (or the 4th)tectonic trap are often evaluated by directly and simply cumulating the resources size of its segments weighted by discovery probability in China.Obviously,not all segments certainly have been dis-covered due to constraints of special geological conditions.In addition,prediction value generally doesn??t honestly reflect the practical geological model if quantifying the direct effect of geological model constraints on volumetric parameters and Monte Carlo simulation process is ignored.For the development of PetroV,an improved non-deterministic volumetric method with quantifying kinds of geological constraints is devised in the paper:to sample and composite the undivided segments which should stay in the same combination,then quantify impact caused by the key geological factors in order to objectively delineate volumetric uncertainty.It is confirmed by applications and detailed analysis that “combination probability cumulating”method proposed in this paper could explain each quantile value of resource distribution with clear geological scenarios,which leads to more reasonable exploration strategies.
Keywords：non-deterministic volumetric methoddiscovery risk dependencyresources assessmentgeological scenarioscom-bination probability cumulatingmathematical modelspetroleum geology
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：11( 853-863 )