Evolution Stage Division of Landslide Based on Analysis of Multivariate Time Series
Luo Wenqiang
Li Feiao
Liu Xiaoshan
Huang Li
Abstract：Curves of cumulative displacement vs.time of the landslide generally include the stages of the initial deformation, constant speed deformation and accelerated deformation.Different deformation stages have their own different acceleration char-acteristics.Now the evolution of landslide can be divided by analyzing the characteristics of acceleration curve.But it lacks theo-retical basis and quantitative calculation.To the above problems,the rainfall of current month and reservoir level fluctuation of current month are selected as influencing factors,and the multivariate time series model is adopted to predict the cumulative displacement.Taking the maximum points of F statistic and log-likelihood ratio statistic of the multivariate time series model as segmentation points divides the evolution stages of landslide based on the theory of Chow breakpoint test.This model is used to deal with the data of cumulative displacement,rainfall and reservoir level fluctuation of Xintan landslide and Baishuihe land-slide in the Three Gorges reservoir area.The results indicate that the Chow breakpoint test on the multivariate time series pre-diction model based on the inducing factors and the landslide displacement has certain validity and application value.This divi-sion of the landslide evolution stage can provide an important criterion for the early-warning prediction of landslide.
Keywords：landslide evolutionmultivariate time seriesChow breakpoint teststage divisionengineering geology
Publication Date：2016-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 711-717 )