Imminent and Medium-Term Predictions for Ludian Earthquake (M s6.5)and Rheological Structure of the Middle Crust
Zeng Zuoxun
Liu Genshen
Li Xianrui
He Chicheng
Yang Xuexiang
Yang Donghong
Abstract：At 1 6:30 of August 3rd,2014,an earthquake with a magnitude of Ms 6.5 occurred in Ludian County of Zhaotong City,Yunnan Province (27.1°N,103.3°E).The depth of the hypocenter is 10 km.Due to this disaster,61 7 people were died, 1 12 people disappeared and 108 840 000 people were injured.According to the superposition effects of the moon declination an-gle,sunspot extreme year cycles and the two,summed up 2013—2014 years is Yunnan strong earthquake periods of high risk, with the condition for the occurrence of Ms 7 earthquake.The following year,forecast method based SW fingerprint information using the earthquake precursory instrument,developed by the end of 2014 21 1 earthquake prediction table,predict 2014 Au-gust Sichuan (26.18°N,105.33°E)Ms 5.3 earthquake will occur.The Ludian Ms 6.5 earthquake occurred on August 3,2014 in-dicates that the error of the predicted date is only 1 day,the predicted epicenter is about 226 km away from the actual earth-quake epicenter.Besides that the actual magnitude is Ms 1.2 larger than the predicted magnitude.According to the comprehen-sive analysis in tectonic setting,the S-wave crustal velocity structure and the focus mechanism of the Ludian earthquake,we believe that the Baogunao-Xiaohe left-lateral strike-slip fault triggered the Ludian earthquake,while the junction of the middle-low crust??s low-velocity (high-conductivity)body and the Baogunao-Xiaohe fault is the location of the focus releasing the accu-mulated energy which practically is the epicenter.This provides a new case study of the three-level tectonic model for intraplate earthquakes.
Keywords：Ludian earthquakeimminent predictionmedium-term predictionBaogunao-Xiaohe fracturethree-level tectonic modelearthquakes
Publication Date：2014-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：12( 1751-1762 )