Evolution of Global and Chinese Barley Trade Patterns and Policy Recommendations

ZHANG Zipei; WANG Ziling; SUN Zhilu

doi:10.14069/j.cnki.32-1769/s.2025.05.001

Abstract：In order to clarify the global and Chinese barley trade pattern,this study systematically analyzed the evolution characteristics of the scale and market structure of global and Chinese barley trade from 1995 to 2024.The results show that from a global perspective,the global barley trade volume has increased significantly,with the concentration of both export and import markets rising steadily.In recent years,China has become the world's largest barley importer and the largest export destination for many countries.From a Chinese perspective,China's barley import volume has shifted from a stable state to high-level fluctuating growth.The average barley import price has changed from low-level operation to fluctuating growth,and the barley import sources have become more diversified,but Australia still remains the main import source.China's barley export volume is very small.The average barley export price has transitioned from low-level operation to high-level operation,and the barley export markets are concentrated but tend to be diversified.The reasons for the evolution of China's barley trade include the impact of changes in the global barley supply-demand and trade patterns,the driving force of the large domestic supply-demand gap and growing demand of barley,as well as the weak international competitiveness of domestic barley and adjustments to China's barley trade policies.In the face of the dynamic changes in the global and China's barley trade patterns,it is necessary to enhance the ability to coordinate the use of domestic and international markets and resources.By promoting the diversification of international supply chains,strengthening trade monitoring and policy regulation,improving domestic comprehensive production capacity,and enhancing the collaborative cooperation of the domestic industrial chain,a safer,more stable and efficient barley industrial chain and supply chain should be built to better safeguard China's national food security and the healthy development of domestic barley industry.