Development and validation of a risk prediction model for early complicated appendicitis in children
Zhou Yajun
Qiang Hongjia
Cao Yuan
Li Xin
Ding Zhaozheng
Zhu Dongsheng
Abstract：Objective To establish and evaluate a risk prediction model for early complex appendicitis in children.Methods 241 children with appendicitis from the Department of Pediatrics at the First People's Hospital of Lianyungang from 2019 to 2022 were included to establish a predictive model and nomogram,and to conduct internal verification.Results The following variables were selected:PAE,CA,NLR,AD,PCT,WBC and PN.The AUC values of the training set and validation set were 0.977(95%CI:0.961～0.992)and 0.968(95%CI:0.953～0.981),respectively.The sensitivity was 0.983 and 0.932,and the specificity was 0.894 and 0.891,respectively.The calibration curve and H-L test(P=0.956>0.05)showed good consistency between the predicted and actual values,with prediction accuracy and precision of 92.5%and 0.911%,respectively.Conclusion The model has high predictive ability and can guide the diagnosis and treatment of early complex appendicitis in children.
Keywords：ChildrenEarly complicated appendicitisPrediction modelNomogramInternal validation
Publication Date：2024-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-19(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：9( 59-67 )