Study on risk factors and predictive efficacy of adverse prognosis of pancreatitis

ZHENG He-ping; ZHOU Wen-kao; YANG Chun-yan; YANG Yu-juan; ZHANG Yu-hua; JIANG Bing-yuan; HONG Ya-zhen

doi:10.16048/j.issn.2095-5561.2025.05.13

Abstract：Objective To identify the risk factors associated with poor prognosis in patients with pancreatitis and to evaluate the predictive performance of these factors.Methods A total of 190 patients with pancreatitis admitted to The Fifth Hospital of Xiamen between June 2020 and June 2024 were enrolled in this study,including 107 males and 83 females,aged 48.67±4.38 years old,ranging from 32 to 68 years old.Clinical data were collected,severity of pancreatitis,blood tests parameters,scoring systems,and prognosis.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors for poor prognosis.The predictive performance of individual and combined indicators was assessed using receiver operator characteristic(ROC)curve analysis.Results Logistic regression analysis identified high ultrasound score,high CT score,elevated APACHEⅡscore,prolonged intensive care unit stay,elevated lactate dehydrogenase and amylase levels,and decreased albumin as independent predictors of poor prognosis(P<0.05).ROC curve analysis demonstrated that ultrasound score,CT score,APACHEⅡscore,and their combined models had good predictive performance,with combined models showing superior accuracy(P<0.05).The combination of ultrasound score and APACHE Ⅱ score had better predictive performance than the combination of CT score and APACHEⅡscore(P<0.05).Conclusion Elevated ultrasound,APACHEⅡ,and CT scores are independent risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with pancreatitis.These scoring systems can be effectively used to predict patient outcomes,with the combination of ultrasound and APACHEⅡ scores providing the highest predictive value.