Application of the Moving Epidemic Method in Determining the Epidemic Intensity Threshold for Varicella Transmission in Taicang City
WANG Guoqing
CHEN Liling
SHI Shengwei
Abstract：Objective To develop a predictive model for varicella in Taicang City using the Moving Epidemics Method(MEM)and provide scientific evidence for comprehensive varicella control.Methods The MEM was applied to weekly varicella case data from the China Infectious Disease Surveillance Information System for the period 2017-2024.The model was used to evaluate the thresholds for varicella epidemic intensity and to assess the incidence of varicella for the 2024-2025 season.Results Based on the data from 2017-—2021 and 2023-2024,the optimal MEM model was established with a parameter δ of 2.3.The model demonstrated strong fitting capability,with a sensitivity of 0.79,specificity of 0.93,and Youden's index of 0.72.The thresholds for the start and end of the epidemic were 51 cases and 32 cases,respectively.The thresholds for moderate,high,and very high epidemic intensity were 103 cases,183 cases,and 216 cases,respectively.Using this model,the 2024-2025 season was evaluated,and the weekly case numbers were found to be within the baseline level.Conclusion The MEM model developed for varicella in Taicang City showed good fitting performance.This model can be effectively used for early warning of varicella outbreaks and to guide comprehensive varicella control measures.
Keywords：chickenpoxmoving epidemic methodepidemic intensityepidemic threshold
Publication Date：2025-10-30
Online Publishing Date：2025-11-19(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 496-501 )