Analysis of the epidemic trend and prevention and control effectiveness of norovirus infection outbreak at a university in Beijing based on dynamic models
WEI Yiyun
LIU Feng
Abstract：Objective To simulate the outbreak trend of norovirus infection in a university in Beijing using transmission dynamics models,and to evaluate the prevention and control effectiveness of isolation measures and comprehensive measures.Methods Based on the data of an outbreak of norovirus infection investigated by Haidian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Beijing from 2019 to 2020,we constructed the SEI AR and SEIAQR models to evaluate the development of the epidemic,and the effectiveness of isolation measures and comprehensive measures for prevention and control.Results The basic reproduction number(R0)of this epidemic without intervention was 12.98(95％CI:12.23～13.62),duration of outbreak was 22 days,and total attack rate was 80.00％.On the fourth day of the epidemic,the CDC intervened and implemented isolation measure and comprehensive measures such as isolation,disinfection,and health promotion.It was expected that the duration would be reduced by 39.13％and the incidence rate would drop to 0.56％.Due to the impact of holidays,there was a new spread of the epidemic on the 9th day,with an effective reproduction number of 4.81(95％CI:4.11～5.48),which was 3 days longer than the expected duration after intervention by CDC,and the number of cases increased by 23.89％.Conclusions The transmission dynamics model can effectively simulate the spread process of Norovirus infection outbreaks,evaluate the effectiveness of comprehensive prevention and control measures such as isolation and disinfection,and have a positive effect on epidemic prevention and control.
Keywords：dynamics modelsnorovirusoutbreakepidemic trendsprevention and control effectiveness
Publication Date：2025-02-27
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 76-82 )