Study on the percentage threshold of influenza-like cases based on moving epidemic interval method and Delphi
WEI Xiaokan
LIU Xiaoxiao
CHU Yanhui
QIN Di
CHEN Yu
ZHOU Chunlian
Abstract：Objective The influenza-like case threshold and hospital management measures were studied based on mobile epidemic interval and Delphi method. Methods The percentage data of influenza-like cases reported by Beijing Friendship Hospital of Capital Medical University from 2014 to 2019 through the Beijing Municipal Hospital Infectious Disease Monitoring and Early Warning Information System were collected. Subsequently, the influenza-like case threshold was calculated using the mobile epidemic interval method, and the Delphi expert consultation method was used to optimize the hospital management measures. Results In this study, when the δ value was 2.30, the Matthew correlation index of the model was high, the epidemic intensity of the 2013/2014, 2015/2016, 2016/2017 and 2017/2018 seasons was the moderate epidemic level, and the epidemic intensity of the 2014/2015 season was the low epidemic level. In the 2018/2019 season, the epidemic intensity was at the ultra-high epidemic level. The percentage thresholds of influenza-like cased at the low epidemic level, the medium epidemic level, the high epidemic level and the ultra-high epidemic level were 1.57％, 2.28％, 4.53％ and 6.14％, respectively, according to the calculation of the mobile epidemic interval method. Experts believed that during the ultra-high prevalence period of influenza, the number of medical staff was recommended to increase by 100％, the proportion of common beds reserved in wards was recommended to increase by 100％, the reserve of influenza prevention and control materials in hospitals was recommended to increase by 100％, the reserve of influenza-related drugs was recommended to increase by 100％, and the maintenance check frequency of information systems and medical equipment were recommended to be adjusted to once a day. Other indicators did not require any changes, according to the experts' assessment. Conclusion According to the influenza threshold, the hospital timely adjusts the allocation of relevant materials and personnel to address the epidemic of influenza-like cases and prevents the run on medical resources.
Keywords：Delphi methodmobile epidemic interval methodInfluenzainfluenza-like casespercentage of influenza-like casesthreshold value
Publication Date：2024-02-28
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 56-60 )