Multi-scenario travel mode choice behavior of stranded passengers under metro service disruptions

YAN Xuedong; GAO Shuojiang; WANG Yun; LIU Xiaobing; CHEN Xing

doi:10.11860/j.issn.1673-0291.20250123

Abstract：To investigate the decision-making mechanisms of stranded passengers'travel mode choice during unexpected metro service disruptions and to clarify the influence of key situational factors,this study constructs a baseline Multinomial Logit model incorporating mode-specific attributes,based on scenario simulations and Stated Preference(SP)surveys.A stepwise utility-correction approach is ap-plied to quantify both the impact intensity and patterns of influence exerted by factors such as expected recovery time,weather conditions,travel time and purpose,remaining trip distance,crowd behavior,and the availability of alternative routes.Model improvements are evaluated using the Likelihood Ratio Test(LRT),Akaike Information Criterion(AIC),Bayesian Information Criterion(BIC),and predic-tion error rates.The research results indicate that passenger decision-making demonstrates strong sce-nario dependence and a pronounced risk-averse tendency.The effects of situational factors vary consid-erably,with expected recovery time having the greatest impact(LR=183.98,prediction error reduced by 1.94%),followed by weather conditions(LR=102.63,error reduced by 1.16%).Trip purpose and remaining journey distance also show notable influence,while crowd behavior and alternative-route availability do not exhibit significant effects.Preferences shifts across public transport modes display similar patterns of change.however,waiting on-site,though frequently chosen as a passive option,maintains a considerable selection rate but declines significantly when systemic and situational risks overlap.Sensitivity to scenario factors differs markedly across modes,with those offering higher cer-tainty and lower risk proving more attractive in disruption scenarios.