Modeling the joint travel decision-making of intercity passengers considering trip chain information

BAO Xinyu; ZHANG Qi; XIAO Yaling; JI Yuzhou

doi:10.11860/j.issn.1673-0291.20240125

Abstract：To address the limited consideration of trip chain information and the correlation between joint travel choices in intercity passengers'decision-making,this study investigates the key factors in-fluencing intercity travelers'joint travel decisions and constructs a corresponding decision-making model.First,taking the Beijing-Taiyuan travel corridor as the research object,this study employs the Stated Preference(SP)method to design a set of comparative scenarios incorporating various levels of trip chain information,and analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of intercity joint travel behavior.Furthermore,to effectively capture the correlation between discrete variables(travel mode)and continuous variables(departure time),a Copula joint model is developed by integrating disaggre-gate travel behavior theory with Sklar's theorem.Finally,parameters are calibrated using the gradient descent method,and their significance is assessed through Wald statistics,resulting in the develop-ment of a joint travel decision-making model for intercity passengers.The constructed Copula joint model is then applied to identify key factors that significantly influence intercity travel mode choice and departure time.The results demonstrate that,compared to travelers with partial or no trip chain infor-mation,those with complete trip chain information show stronger preferences for high-speed rail and later departure time,evidencing the significant impact of trip chain information in shaping joint travel decisions.The statistical tests of Copula parameter further confirm a significant correlation between travel mode and departure time.The Copula joint model also outperforms alternative models in terms of goodness of fit and predictive accuracy.