Prediction method of train delay time in technology service station
SUN Luetian
SONG Rui
HE Shiwei
YIN Weichuan
Abstract：Accurately forecasting the technology service station train delay time can not only be used for the station warning technology,but also set aside time for the station to arrange train route,as far as possible to ensure the goods to the deadline,so it is important to improve the abil ity of technology and market of railway freight station with guarantee.This paper analyses the train delay situation and the main influencing factors of technical station train delay.The GM (1,2) model is used to predict the train delay time and the Markov matrix is used for error correction in order to make sure the range in which the error lie,we can make the prediction in a short term be in the prediction interval by predicting and revising over and over again.In the meantime,we use RBF neural network(NN) to increase the training data by interpolating to predict the delay accurately and the average error is kept be-low 3％.Finally,the advantages and disadvantages of the two forecasting methods are analyzed and compared and we point out the application scope of the prediction method severally.
Keywords：railway transportationdelay time predictiongrey Markov modelRBF networktechnical station train
Publication Date：2018-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：6( 94-98,126 )