Forecast model of wagon operation time in marshalling station based on category mapping
ZHANG Xiaodong
DONG Baotian
WANG Yue
Abstract：The contemporary railway marshalling station wagon forecast method cannot meet the requirements compared with the actual railway transport organization.Combined with the charac-teristics of the stability of the wagon operation time data, the goods-wagon type mapping function is designed.Considering the impact of the difference between the wagon type and the goods type,the new time series is dynamic updated.A new forecasting model of marshalling yard wagon transit operation is put forward with time series analysis method.The parameters in the model are estimated using the maximum likelihood estimate method.The experimental results in-dicate that the proposed model is conducive to forecast and analyze the transportation organization activities,could accurately forecast the wagon transit time,conform to the actual development trend and improve the accuracy of railway traffic flow forecast.
Keywords：railway transportationforecast modeltime series analysiswagon operation timemapping functionARMA model
Publication Date：2017-01-01
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：7( 69-75 )