Simulation Research on Urban Traffic Safety Resilience Based on System Dynamics
LI Guoxing
DENG Yangyang
LIU Zhanning
LI Xiaoyu
ZHANG Yiwei
TIAN Rui
WANG Tiecheng
Abstract：The traffic safety resilience level in Beijing is evaluated.An urban traffic safety resilience assessment model is constructed from three dimensions:pre-disaster prevention,disaster resistance during disasters,and post-disaster recovery.By integrating system dynamics and safety resilience theory,the urban traffic safety resilience level is assessed,and the changing trend of traffic safety resilience in Beijing from 2013 to 2022 is analyzed as well as the trend prediction.The findings indicate that Beijing's traffic safety resilience increased slowly in the initial phase and surged significantly in the subsequent period.Capital investment and road grade directly impact the development trend of urban traffic safety resilience.Regarding trend prediction,the urban traffic safety resilience has a remarkable increase,presenting a distribution feature of slow growth in the early stage and rapid growth in the later stage.Based on the above conclusions,some suggestions are proposed:enhancing the investment in urban traffic safety funds and vigorously promoting urban road construction will contribute to further enhancing the urban traffic safety resilience.
Keywords：safety resiliencesystem dynamicssimulationurban traffic
Publication Date：2025-03-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：8( 59-66 )