Construction and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Risk of Cesarean Section Incision Endometriosis in Postpartum Women
Abstract：Objective To explore the risk factors for the occurrence of endometriosis at the cesarean section incision in postpartum women, and to construct a risk nomogram model. Methods A total of 121 postpartum women who underwent cesarean section at Suqian People's Hospital, Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital Group from January 2019 to January 2021 were selected. They were divided into two groups based on whether they developed endometriosis within two years after surgery. The risk factors for the occurrence of endometriosis at the cesarean section incision were analyzed, and a risk nomogram model was constructed. Another group of 51 postpartum women who underwent cesarean section from January 2021 to January 2022 at the same hospital was used as a validation set to externally validate the model. Results The final predictive variables included age, parity, history of pelvic surgery, estrogen levels, and menstrual cycle. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the training set and validation set were 0.967 and 0.974, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test values were x2=7.751, P=0.457 and x2=3.459, P=0.902. Decision curve analysis showed that the model could provide significant clinical benefit when the threshold was between 0.10 and 0.90. Conclusion The nomogram model constructed in this study has good early warning value for predicting the risk of endometriosis at the cesarean section incision in postpartum women, and it is of great value for clinical screening and identification of such cases.
Keywords：Postpartum womenCesarean sectionPostoperative incisionEndometriosisNomogram
Publication Date：2025-02-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 120-123 )