Construction and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Postoperative Pharyngeal Pain in Patients Undergoing General Anesthesia with Tracheal Intubation

doi:10.12104/j.issn.1674-4748.2025.21.018

Abstract：Objective: To explore the independent risk factors for postoperative pharyngeal pain in patients undergoing general anesthesia with tracheal intubation, and to construct and validate a risk prediction model. Methods: A total of 181 patients who underwent general anesthesia with tracheal intubation at the hospital between June 2020 and August 2022 were selected as the modeling set. According to the occurrence of pharyngeal pain within 72 hours after surgery, the patients were divided into the pharyngeal pain group and the non-pharyngeal pain group. Baseline data and related clinical indicators of the two groups were compared and analyzed. According to a 7:3 ratio, another 78 patients who underwent general anesthesia with tracheal intubation between September 2022 and June 2023 were selected as the validation set for verification. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors, and a risk prediction model was constructed. The clinical benefit was evaluated using decision curves, and the predictive performance of the model was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves, followed by validation. Results: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the number of intubations, duration of intubation, number of suctioning during surgery, and the time of first drinking after general anesthesia awakening were independent risk factors for postoperative pharyngeal pain in patients undergoing general anesthesia with tracheal intubation (P < 0.05). Based on these independent risk factors, the constructed risk prediction model had an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.816, 95% CI [0.756, 0.877], a Yuden index of 0.471, with sensitivity and specificity of 72.4% and 74.7%, respectively. Conclusion: The number of intubations, duration of intubation, and the number of suctioning during surgery are independent risk factors for postoperative pharyngeal pain in patients undergoing general anesthesia with tracheal intubation. The risk prediction model constructed based on these factors has good predictive performance and ideal validation results.