Construction and Validation of a Prediction Model for Pain Catastrophizing in Patients with Herpes Zoster Complicated by Postherpetic Neuralgia
Abstract：Objective: To investigate the factors contributing to pain catastrophizing (PC) in patients with herpes zoster (HZ) complicated by postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), and to construct and validate a risk prediction model. Methods: A total of 160 PHN patients from Jingdezhen Dermatology Hospital between June 2022 and October 2023 were selected and divided into PC group and non-PC group based on whether PC occurred. Influencing factors were analyzed, and a nomogram model was established. Additionally, 70 patients from November 2023 to May 2024 were selected as the validation set. Results: There were 45 cases in the PC group and 115 cases in the non-PC group. Multivariate analysis showed that age, PHQ-9 score, PSQI score, VAS score, HADS-A score, and HADS-D score were independent risk factors for pain catastrophizing in patients with HZ complicated by PHN. Older age, depression, anxiety, poor sleep quality, and higher VAS scores were identified as risk factors. A nomogram model was constructed: Logit(P) = 0.085 × age + 1.158 × PHQ-9 score + 1.223 × PSQI score + 0.824 × VAS score + 1.770 × HADS-A score + 1.177 × HADS-D score - 12.152. The area under the ROC curve was 0.906 [95% CI (0.857, 0.995)], with sensitivity of 0.844, specificity of 0.809, and Yuden's index of 0.653. The optimal cutoff value for prediction probability was 0.300. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ² = 7.113, P = 0.525. Conclusion: The risk prediction model constructed in this study can effectively identify the risk factors for pain catastrophizing in patients with HZ complicated by PHN and provide clinical nursing reference.
Keywords：postherpetic neuralgiaherpes zosterpain catastrophizingprediction modelNomogram
Publication Date：2025-09-15
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-24(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 3274-3278 )