The Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Yield of Shenzhou Pineapple and Its Forecasting Model
Abstract：To study the impact of precipitation and temperature on the yield of Shenzhou pineapple, a special agricultural product of Zhongshan, based on the pineapple yield data from 1990 to 2022 in Shenzhou Town and meteorological data from the Zhongshan National Basic Meteorological Station and the Shenzhou Dapai Meteorological Station, methods such as HP filtering, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis were used to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on the yield of Shenzhou pineapple and to build a yield forecasting model. The results showed that the climatic yield of pineapple was positively correlated with the rainfall in March and December of the same year, the rainfall in December of the previous year, and the average temperature in June of the same year; it was negatively correlated with the rainfall in June of the same year, the average temperature in December of the previous year, and the number of days with temperatures ≤10°C in January-February of the same year. The yield forecasting model achieved an average accuracy rate of 91.4% during the back-calculation test from 1990 to 2022, and the accuracy rate for the 2023 yield forecast was 90.8%, indicating good forecasting performance.
Keywords：Agricultural MeteorologyShenzhou PineappleMeteorological FactorsClimatic YieldYield ForecastingZhongshan
Publication Date：2025-12-20
Online Publishing Date：2026-01-07(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 71-74,78 )