Research on the Forecasting Technology of Litchi Sclerotinia Blight Based on GM(1,N) Model
Abstract：To explore the impact of meteorological conditions on the occurrence of litchi sclerotinia blight in Guangzhou City, based on the data of diseased fruit rate of litchi sclerotinia blight from 2013 to 2024, combined with daily meteorological data from 2012 to 2024, a grey relational analysis was conducted between the diseased fruit rate of sclerotinia blight and historical meteorological elements. The main influencing factors were selected, and a multivariate grey prediction model GM(1,N) was used to construct a forecasting model. The model accuracy was tested using the posterior error and small probability error inspection methods. The results showed that the main meteorological elements affecting the occurrence of litchi sclerotinia blight were precipitation, especially the precipitation in the previous winter and during the flowering and fruiting period. The grey GM(1,10) model performed well in forecasting the diseased fruit rate of sclerotinia blight, and the predicted results were consistent with the actual situation.
Keywords：Agricultural meteorologyLitchiSclerotinia blightGrey relational degreeGM(1,N) model
Publication Date：2025-08-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-09-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：4( 85-88 )