Regional Division of Disaster Risk from Low Temperature and Rainy Weather During the Flowering Period of Mei County Pomelo

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007-6190.2025.03.019

Abstract：In order to better prevent disaster weather, this study uses daily meteorological observation data from national meteorological stations in Meizhou City to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering period of Mei County pomelo. Key features of low temperature and rainy weather were selected, and the entropy weight method was used to determine their weight coefficients. The disaster risk index for low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering period of Mei County pomelo was calculated. Combined with the exposure of the disaster-bearing body of Mei County pomelo, a risk assessment of low temperature and rainy weather disasters during the flowering period of Mei County pomelo was conducted. The results show that: (1) The frequency and duration of low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering period of Mei County pomelo have shown a decreasing trend, and there are three significant cycles in time distribution: 4-6 years, about 12 years, and about 37 years. (2) The annual average number of occurrences and the annual average duration of low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering period of Mei County pomelo show a similar spatial distribution pattern, showing a decreasing trend from northwest to southeast. The EOF analysis results indicate that the spatial distribution of low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering period of Mei County pomelo is consistent, i.e., it is either consistently more or less, with a modal contribution rate as high as 91.62%. (3) Pingyuan County, Xingning City, and Wuhua County in Meizhou City have a higher disaster risk index for low temperature and rainy weather, and the pomelo planted in these areas is prone to suffer from low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering and pollination period. (4) Dabu County, Meijiang District, and Meixian District in Meizhou City have a higher risk of low temperature and rainy weather disasters during the flowering period of pomelo. These areas have large planting areas and high industrial output value, and pomelo crops are easily affected by low temperature and rainy weather during the flowering stage, thus affecting the fruit setting rate and yield of pomelo.