Evaluation of Typhoon Genesis Forecast in Numerical Weather Prediction Models
Abstract：To evaluate the forecasting performance of numerical weather prediction models, this study mainly uses vortex tracking technology to quantitatively assess the performance of the CMA-TRAMS and EC operational models in forecasting typhoon genesis. The results show that the TRAMS model forecasts more typhoons than the EC model. The EC model has a higher rate of missed reports for tropical storm genesis compared to the TRAMS model, but the TRAMS model has a higher average false alarm rate. The initial wind speed of typhoons forecasted by the TRAMS model is higher than that of the EC model, and the errors in generation time and location are slightly smaller than those of the EC model. The typhoons initially reported by the EC model that were missed tend to be smaller in size, with the 7-level wind circle mostly around 200 km. The false alarms from the TRAMS model mainly include newly formed typhoons generated south of Japan, as well as typhoons that weaken in the rear of low vortices and then form again in the northeast direction.
Keywords：Meteorological ForecastingForecast VerificationTyphoon GenesisTRAMS ModelEC Model
Publication Date：2025-06-20
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)
Pages：5( 53-56,76 )