Forecast Verification and Meteorological Service Summary of Typhoon 'Talim' (No. 2304)
Abstract：This paper conducts a business forecast verification and meteorological service summary of Typhoon 'Talim' (No. 2304), the first typhoon to make landfall in China in 2023. The results show that the Guangdong Provincial Meteorological Station's forecast errors for the path and intensity of Typhoon 'Talim' were generally better than the average of the station's subjective forecasts for the same year and the past three years. Among them, the path forecast error was the lowest or close to the lowest among all forecast institutions, with a 24-hour path forecast error less than 50 km. In terms of precipitation forecasting, the provincial subjective grid showed positive skill compared to numerical models, and the CMA-GD model performed better than the ECMWF model in TS and missed alarm rate (MAR) evaluation scores. The Guangdong meteorological department achieved accurate and stable typhoon forecasts, refined and reliable decision-making services, efficient inter-departmental coordination, and comprehensive industry support. Through the 'accurate forecast, early warning, strong linkage, frequent interaction, wide coverage, and regular review' forecast service model, it has achieved good disaster prevention and mitigation benefits.
Keywords：Talimforecast verificationmeteorological servicedisaster prevention and mitigation
Publication Date：2025-02-19
Online Publishing Date：2025-08-15(First online date of this platform, not the publication date of the document)